Forecasting the dynamics of forest ecosystems in conditions of industrial emissions pollution by the state of herbaceous plants

The article is devoted to the fundamental problem of biochemical ecology – finding mathematical patterns that describe the effect of technogenic pollutants on vascular plants. In the activities of employees of forestry, national parks and scientific organizations of the forestry complex, there is a need to prepare forecasts of the forest ecosystems dynamics for scientific and economic activities and for the adoption of managerial phenomena. Pollution of natural areas near an industrial enterprises of the Irkutsk region is associated with dust and gas emissions from accumulated soils and plants of the unique natural object of Lake Baikal, which is under the protection of UNESCO. The object of the study is the system of interrelations of perennial plants of the genus Thalictrum sensitive to changes in habitat conditions due to growth in areas with accumulated environmental damage. The article describes the habitat conditions of marker plants. Information is given on the content of conditionally toxic elements in the soil horizons of industrially polluted territories of the Southern Baikal region. Distribution of these elements in soil horizons is described. The paper proves the possibility of using the method of mathematical modeling to identify the dependence of the habitus of an ecological marker on the conditions of influence of the natural and technogenic environment. A mathematical model is presented that relates significant environmental factors of industrially contaminated territories that affect the development of bioindicator plant species Thalictrum minus L. territory. This model was developed to carry out a predictive assessment of the state of forest ecosystems on the example of the Southern Baikal region by biologists, ecologists, and foresters.

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