The series of average annual water flow rate in the Matrosovka River (arm of the Neman River)
https://doi.org/10.46845/1997-3071-2023-70-46-58
Abstract
The Matrosovka River is the left arm of the Neman River, flows through the territory of the Kaliningrad region. It plays a significant role in the fisheries of the region, is a water receiver of numerous reclamation drainage systems. These problems are closely related to the water content of the river. Therefore, the analysis of the series of average annual water flow rate Q in the Matrosovka River is a very urgent task. The Mostovoye hydrological post, where water flow measurements are carried out, has been in operation since 1968. Moreover, there are no results for some years. The use of the Varta River (the right tributary of the Oder) in previously published works to restore the Q series of the Matrosovka River led to serious errors due to violations of the conditions of hydrological similarity. It is shown that the Neman River satisfies all the requirements for an analog river. A number of observations of Q in the alignment of the city of Smalininkai dates back more than 200 years. To restore the Q series of the Matrosovka River, the well-known method of E.G. Ivanov was used. Analysis of the parabolic trend and the integral-difference flow curve showed that the restored series can be divided into three periods by water content. The first was from 1812 to the mid – 70s of the 19th century with an average flow rate of Qs1 = 135.6 cubic meters/s. The second – until the end of the 50s of the 20th century, Qs2 = 142.8 cubic meters/s; the third – by 2020, Qs3 = 125 cubic meters/s. The hypothesis of uniformity of the series was rejected (according to the Student's criterion) due to the large difference between Qs2 and Qs3. The three-parameter gamma distribution Q was accepted as theoretical. The distribution parameters were found in three ways: 1) over the entire series, as homogeneous, 2) by a composite formula for three periods, 3) by a composite formula for the last two periods. The difference between the estimated costs Q of a given probability of excess found by these methods turned out to be less than 3%. Therefore, to determine them, it is possible to use a theoretical distribution calculated over the entire series as a single one.
Keywords
Neman River,
Matrosovka arm,
average annual water flow rate,
restoration of the series,
probability of excess
Supporting agencies: The research has been carried out with the financial support of the Russian Science Foundation and the Government of the Kaliningrad Region within the framework of scientific project No. 22-27-20016.
About the Author
V. F. Naumov
Kaliningrad State Technical University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Vladimir A. Naumov - Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor of Technosphere Safety and Environmental Engineering Department
Kaliningrad
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For citations:
Naumov V.F. The series of average annual water flow rate in the Matrosovka River (arm of the Neman River). KSTU News. 2023;(70):46-58. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.46845/1997-3071-2023-70-46-58
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